﻿ The Weather Market
Home > Project Page

# The Weather Market

## Abstract:

Using the collaborative forecasts of a community of amateur meteorologists, The Weather Market harnesses the expertise of each individual to build more accurate weather projections. Visitors to the site can predict the temperature, wind speed, and precipitation for hundreds of locations across the country. Each individual's forecasts are compared to the actual weather, and points are awarded for accuracy and difficulty. A weighted average of all the forecasts for a particular location is presented as the "market" forecast.

## What is The Weather Market?

The Weather Market is a weather forecasting website where the users make the forecasts. Instead of relying on one meteorologist or computer, The Weather Market analyzes the forecasts of its users to generate a consensus on what the weather outlook may be.

## How does The Weather Market work?

Each forecast is generated based off a weighted average of each individual's forecast for a specific area, based off of the user's accuracy. Therefore, users with a higher accuracy percentage weigh in more heavily when generating the forecast.

## How are points calculated?

Points are calculated by multiplying the accuracy of a forecast by its difficulty. To determine the accuracy of the forecasts, the actual weather is compared to each user's forecasts. For each component of the forecast, such as high temperature or precipitation, the actual result is compared to the predicted value and an accuracy percentage is calculated using a quadratic formula. The difficulty of a forecast is based off of how far in advance the forecast was made as well as how many optional forecast components, such as wind speed or precipitation, are predicted. These two values, the accuracy and the difficulty, are multiplied, resulting in a point value of up to 100 points.

## How do I make a forecast?

Click on New Forecast, and choose a location and date for the forecast. Then fill out the high and low temperatures, wind speed, precipitation and weather description you are predicting for that day.

## How accurate are the forecasts?

Forecasts are as accurate as the forecasters making them. Since generated forecasts are more heavily influenced by the more accurate users, resulting forecasts should be accurate as well.